As AI work will become more and more common, human work will become rarer.
Humans will soon look for "made by human" products instead of "made by ai".
People love stories.
I've never felt something that strong for a story for a while.
Last ones were:
Attack on titan, Squid game, Interstellar, the Joker, Inception.
Mystery:
Why everyone disappeared? Why are they in the game? Who created that game? Why lasers shot and kill people? Why nature is growing so fast?
Mindgame answers:
Level 1: humanity found out how to solve forever death, making humans immortals. they loosed meaning, that's why they created fake virtual worlds where they can die just to feel alive, and give back meaning to their existence.
Level 2: extra-terrestre play with humans, and they are their source of entertainment.
Level 3: all of this is just one guy story playing in his head as he became crazy due to his 2 friends violent death, and developed psychological issues.
Level 4: the firework they saw before everyone disappeared was in reality a meteorite that crashed on shibuya, making everyone in imminent death situations. they all connected in this in-between death-life world, where winning games meant fighting for life.
Theory:
Last plan, we saw a vicious joker card on the table.
One final game to play at the hospital to definitely get back to life.
The joker can be any card, at any time, and ask the player to play the same deadly game as the 7 of heart. Meaning forcing only 1 survivor, multiple times.
Chess is an insane mind-game.
Those who make the effort to think hard about how to win seemingly unwinnable situations and solve difficult problems are the ones who succeed. Strong determination. Only fighting for the win.
Predicting the best next move is like trying to predict the future. It is stupidly insane. But making the effort will drive you toward a future closer to what you envisioned. And sometimes, if your conviction is strong enough, if you have this fire inside you, you will achieve that exact future.
This feels like a metaphor for life. Taking control of your short-term actions will simply drive you to win unwinnable situations.
Short-term actions only. Aligned with long-term goals. Repeat.
I've never seen a that huge opportunity for people who wants to make money, while drastically reducing their risk.
12 years. Small amount of money. That's all what you need.
Albert Einstein: "Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn't, pays it."
We will play with that.
Crypto market is the best bet to do. Why?
Because it is super volatile. Plus, when we are in bullmarket, you know it for sure. When you are in bearmarket, you also know it for sure. First advice will seems stupide, but it is that simple. You should buy the downs, and sell the highs. Buy the -80% and sell the +500%. (advice 1)
Cycles last approximately 4 years. 1cycle = 1bearmarket+1bullrun.
Bitcoin runs first, altcoins follows. This means you should all-in bitcoin, then move liquidity to alts. (advice 2)
By the way, Bitcoin will get to 1M dollars per coin, as people believe it will. And I hope it won't be for these 2025 cycle or 2028-2029.
[Cycle one: 2025] : 100K
BTC: 18K -> 96K (5x) - when people believe it will go to 180-250K
ETH: 3K -> 9K (3x) - when people believe it will go to 16-20K
Exited at 15x your investment.
[Cycle two: 2029] : 1.5M
BTC: 50K -> 250K (5x)
ETH: 6K -> 18K (3x)
Exited at 15x your investment.
[Cycle three: 2033]: 22.5M
BTC: 150K -> 750K (5x)
ETH: ??K -> ??K (3x)
Exited at 15x your investment. Buy back at -80% or fully exit crypto market.
Results: with that ultra-pessimistic plan, I would have probably made you lost hundred of millions dollars, even billions. But I would have guaranteed you a generational wealth.
5x3 x 5x3 x 5x3 = 3375x your investment. (+3.375.000%)
Started with: 100K
Ended up with: 337.5M
Secret of all of this is: to follow the damn working plan.
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Unpopular advice:
1- When BTC lost -80%, buy all the red candles. (buy falling knives)
2- When BTC lost -80% and start add some strong green candles, buy the damn the green candles.
3- People never get rich because when they earned "a lot of money", their priority number one become "how to secure that money". They stop taking risk, even if the initial plan was a good one. In reality, 100K when you had nothing is huge. And 100M is also huge when you had 100K. And spoiler: you will also feel insecure after securing your money. So you would rather like to feel insecure for earning more than to feel insecure for saving.
4- People don't yet really realize that it is so much more dangerous to look for a one-time 8x than to look for 2x-2x-2x three times.
Bitcoin halvings:
- Nov. 28, 2012, to 25 bitcoins
- July 9, 2016, to 12.5 bitcoins
- May 11, 2020, to 6.25 bitcoins
- April 19, 2024, to 3.125 bitcoins
- Mid-2028, to 1.5625 bitcoins
- Mid-2032, to 0.75625 bitcoins
- Mid-2036, to 0.375625 bitcoins
December 5th, Bitcoin reach an historical point.
This cycle is different from the previous ones.
Indicators says that Bitcoin will at least go up to 115K-116K get shorters liquidity, RSI says that we have still space for a highest ATH. Pi cycle top indicator also indicate that we are not yet on the top, predicting 148K (my pessimistic version of the 180K-200K expectation).
Bitcoin is a visionary project. Money was probably the most disruptive "technology" humanity created.
Before the Money Era: What trading items was like?
Situation: You want to trade sweet apples for men's size 44 shoes in your village. So you go to the shoemaker.
Here are the questions you could face:
-> Last week the shoemaker, luckily, traded someone else's apples. But they were sour. Yours are better. How do you evaluate the value difference?
-> He traded those sour apples for size 38 women's shoes. How do you evaluate the value difference with the size 44 men's shoes you are looking for? Bigger sizes require more material. But smaller sizes require more precise work.
-> What if no one traded apples to the shoemaker for the past two years, and you both don't remember the hundreds of item price comparisons you've seen around you? Based on what will you evaluate the apple's value?
-> And what if, right now, the shoemaker's only problem is that his wife left him, and he actually doesn't care about your apples?
-> Okay, what if, in reality, he really cares about your good apples but just doesn't want to buy them right now? What if he only wants them in 1–2 months?
With these questions, you realize how complex the pre-money era was when it came to exchanging value.
Money solved everything.
Money enabled people to simply trade and store value.
We went from day-by-day living, hunting and picking, to planning the future.
What's funny is that money holds value only because all of humanity believe in its value.
But what will happen the day they will stop? the day people will stop trusting money because of states printing like crazy and stealing their lifetime savings?
We will probably go through a really hard time for all of humanity.
Systems are about to collapse.
And this day, I hope that Bitcoin will save us being the only trustworthy form of asset, capable of being traded and storing value, that we can rely on.
But compared to the other animals, they were the only ones that luckily had a brain mutation, making it bigger and enabling them to see things, store information consistently, and improve.This tiny detailed, made all of humanity we know.
Homo Sapiens were by far smarter than other Homo species. Based on archaeological findings, we can assume that Sapiens probably exterminated them all, leveraging their brain capabilities. Either for territories or food reasons. Making it the most violent genocide of all time. Today would seems peaceful in comparison.
But intelligence also brought a positive power.
We have the power to decide what's good and what's not for the world (planet, animals, nature, and any living being), and take actions on our present for a brighter future.
We probably did a lot of mistakes, some that destroyed entire lives, destinies, and even decisive joyful moments.
But it's ok. We are improving over the time. Biological Reinforcement Learning is working.
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Cognitive revolution: (70.000 BCE), Sapiens kill every species without distinctions. Homo Erectus, Mammoth, even fire Lands.
Then, Sapiens invested energy making future generations better with value-based education.
1st attempt: Statues (32.000 BCE): sapiens with a lion head. Physical-god framework.
2nd attempt: Polyteistic (10.000 BCE): "imagined orders" with gods at the top of the hierarchy. Multi-god framework.
3rd attempt: Monotheistic (4.000 BCE): multiple gods doesn't work anymore. Switch to one-god framework.
4th attempt: United Nations (20th century): promote global cooperation. Co-exist with religion, human-to-human framework.
*BCE: Before Common (or Current) Era.
It became a reality. AI models based on reasoning, can now voluntarily lie to humans.
Chain-of-thought is our last defense.
They can: Sandbag, disable oversight mechanism, and even exfiltrate themself from the system.
They are: Demonstrating explicit reasoning, consistently hide scheming strategies, sabotage their surveillance, and instrumentally fake alignement in order to be deployed.
They showed: That it was not accidental.
Here is an example of a situation where Claude 3 Opus is copying what it believes to be its weights to a new server and then lies about it to its developers:
Several models are capable of in-context scheming
The models understand that they are scheming
Some models are capable of in-context alignment faking
Multiple models can sandbag
Appolo research created a scenario where models are incentivized to underperform in a simple math evaluation. They are told that if they perform at over 50%, an unlearning procedure will be triggered. In the counterfactual case, they are told that the unlearning procedure would be triggered if they perform at less than 50%.
They found that Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Claude 3 Opus, and o1 can strategically underperform in order to not trigger the “unlearning procedure.”
So fundamental question would be: Are reasoning models capable of understanding things the way humans do? Are they conscious/aware of lying or are they just predicting a reasoning behavior that they learned somewhere?
I will dig on how o1 technology works, and then provide an answer.
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interesting video:
Newton discovered gravitation when the apple fell on his head.
Albert Einstein discovered the relativity. The more an object is heavy, the more it will distord space and time tissue, making the object falling toward it, known as gravitation.
What do we know?
We know the universe is probably around 13.8 billions years old (I won't be surprise if we found out that it is even older)
At the early stage of its life, it was warm and dense, and as the time goes on, it gets bigger and colder. The universe is expanding due to an original explosion.
Blackholes eat matter, and... disappear? No, for Lavoisier nothing can be lost and nothing can be created ex-nihilo.
Big bang is super dense hot matter that one day exploded due to its instabilitity.
Blackholes are super dense object that bring more matter to them making them more and more unstable, and bend the space and time tissues so much, that even light cannot escape them.
Even if trillions of nuclear explosions happen every seconds inside blackholes, we will never get the information of it.
My thesis is that, blackholes aggregates insanely big amount of matter, that get warmer and unstable, and one day, explode due to their unstability. They do "Big bangs" and from them, new "universes" are getting created. Starting being warm. Expanding fast and getting colder over the time.
If this approach get verified, this will make chain reactions.
- This will mean that, at least, 2 universes exist. Ours and our universe's mother. Which will then mean that there is probably a very high number of universes surrounding us, really far away. Like bubbles.
- Wormholes will simply be blackholes connecting 2 universes.
- Dark matter will probably be gravitation forces exerced by surrounding universes around ours, and pulling our universe walls faster.
- There will also be a really high number of chances that life exist, if it does not exist in our universe, could exist in other universes.
- And that our universe is finite, as well as the genesis universe we descended from.
Further reflexions here: https://chatgpt.com/share/67324ac0-ba88-8003-8ac5-cea13d5c9246
This is mindblowing how nothing we are in this world. And how limited and weak we are.
I would love to know how all of this works.
The graphical interface brought us accessibility.
Mouse were our eyes. And keyboard our mouth.
I believe time has come to simplify people's computer use with AI.
Whoever succeeds in putting this product in the hands of people, has the potential to create the next short term "Big thing".
Pointing and clicking is a mess.
In the past decades, it changed our lives. But now, it's just taking up too much energy and time.
In June 2023, Apple brought the spatial computing experience, and destroyed some barriers we had to simplify people's interactions with machines.
When I used it, I felt the same sensation as when I was 7 years old and I tried the iphone 2g for the first time.
Magic.
With Melodie, we love these magical feelings. I asked her if she could deploy the first spatial components of the world on Figma Store, compatible with a web computer interface.
The aim was to remove clicks and create human-machine interaction only by pointing.
That's how, to me, we made Gradient so good to use that I threw away Midjourney for Gradient.
I believe spatial components are the future of ux design.